Street Fighter V - Wake Up Analysis coded with love by @WydD

click in a cell to see the situation in video! (don't hesitate to use the speed feature from youtube)

Changes

2016-09-05: Measures on "Light" and "Throw" defense were not buffered.
It was defending on the 2nd frame only, it changed the result againt meaty low light.
2016-09-06: Changed the Air Special Throw timing.
If low enough, the Air SPD can catch the backdash.

Questions and Answers

So what's this about?
This table represents every situations (or at the most common ones) in the wake-up mind-game for Street Fighter V.
What for?
SFV needs quick decision making, and from what I've seen, even people at Gold Level still have a hard time to understand how some situations behave. So I created all situations, now you can see them in action and perfectly executed.
How can it actually be useful?
Try to answer the question "should I backdash or should I jump to avoid a potential throw?" in 10s. I know I learned one or two things while doing this and I'm gold so most people should benefit from this.
How perfect the input are?
They are exactly as described in the later sections. I've created a laboratory to inject frame-by-frame inputs from both sides.
How perfect should the input be?
That depends on the situation of course, here I suppose the inputs are perfect, for instance if you're going for a DP but you're not reversal it's not in the chart.
You said that the attacker is now on advantage but the defender is blocking.
If you are attacking and you are on block you still have the initiative, that's something to take into account and that why the empty hourglass icon is here to represent.
Why did you pick those characters?
Cammy is my main so I know here normals and options well. Ryu has a typical DP and a 3f DP with the right hitbox to show off what I wanted to demonstrate on Safe Jumps and instant overheads. Zangief is the most obvious choice for grabbing and he has the fastest special grab (CA).
Can you share the tool you used to replicate those experiment?
Yes? No? Maybe. For now, I have trouble sharing code that can be used for cheating purposes but I may change my opinion on that.
There is something wrong!
My inputs are perfect but my reasoning may not be and the way I created may not be as well. Talking to me about it on twitter @WydD or on reddit /u/-WydD-
You are missing one weird OS.
Well I'm not for sophisticated OS here, I already put the Jump Tech OS and the Jump Cancel VT which are already very specific and should be used carefully. But tell me about it and I'll consider and it.
You are missing this character specific wake-up action.
For instance, it can be possible to punish a whiffed throw with jump (a dive for instance). But that would make the analysis too complex so I left those options out.

General Remarks

Some situations are character specific!
For instance, Instant Overhead vs Invincible Reversal whiffs. This is NOT a general rule, but that's something that should be considered that some situations are weird because of hitboxes.
You still need to think!
If you blindly apply the table like a dummy you will do DPs because it's the most preferable defense and you will do meaties or instant overheads all the time. Well for one, instant overheads put you in negative after hit and secondly this is still a mind-game! So applying stuff by rule sets is always a bad idea. This just give you tools to assess a situation.
Only the first level of the situations is provided.
Those situations pretty much covers all that is possible to do without taking into account what your adversary is doing (because of reaction time). If the attacker does a light, that you block and go for a throw, that's something that is not covered because more that 20 frames passed after the wake-up and the possible situations count explodes.
Frame advantage and distance matter.
While it's hard to assess the better option between two, the result can not be binary. The perfect example is the Jump Tech OS which is most often a bad decision in terms of initiative, but it's the choice that puts you the most far from your opponent where initiative won't matter.
Actions are performed by a dummy bot.
Hence, the situation Safe Jump vs Throw hits but any decent player would never tech throw a jumping opponent.
After a given input, the bot will defend.
It will guard high if needed. That's why Cammy blocks in Throw vs Jump. But be aware that she still has advantage and can counter after the throw whiff.

Attack details

Read instructions: the sequence [15, DOWN, LK], [1, DOWN, BACK, LP] can be read as "I press 2LK for 15 frames and then I press 1LP for 1 frame".

Low Light

Inputs:
4 frames before wake-up: [1, DOWN, LK], [15, DOWN, BACK], [1, DOWN, BACK, LP].
Main idea:
The LK will hit low on the first frame, it's a perfect meaty because only the last active hits.
Similar situations:
Any true meaty that is not a Safe Jump.
Comments:
The LP is done to represent the typical block-string / hit-punish situation you want to get. Cammy's 2LP will let her with the initiative for frame traps for instance.

Delayed Light

Inputs:
At wake-up: [5, DOWN, BACK], [1, DOWN, BACK, LP].
Main idea:
Block any reversal but try to retake the advantage as soon as possible.
Comments:
The guard is 5 frames to counter most DP, but Cammy's HK Cannon Strike is 6 frames so it will depend. This is one of the shortest setup you can get. The delay actually influences Delayed vs Delayed situations so you should be aware of what happens.

Delayed Medium

Inputs:
3 frames before wake-up: [1, MP].
Main idea:
A perfect meaty won't provoke a counter-hit on backdash and won't punish jump tech OS. This one will because it hits 3 frames after the wake-up.
Comments:
5MP is a classic wake-up choice for Cammy and can provide you great follow-up.

Throw

Inputs:
3 frames before wake-up: [1, LP, LK].
Main idea:
Make the throw hit as soon as possible.
Comments:
SFIV and SFV have 2f of throw invincibility at wake-up. So that is why it is not 5 frames before wake-up.

Delayed Throw

Inputs:
At wake-up: [5, DOWN, BACK], [1, LP, LK, DOWN, BACK].
Main idea:
Block any reversal but try to do damage while blocking throws.
Comments:
Same comments as the delayed light about the length of the delay.

Special Throw

Inputs:
[Zangief] 6 frames before wake-up: [1, FORWARD], [1, DOWN], [1, BACK], [1, UP, LP].
Main idea:
Make the special throw hit as soon as possible.
Comments:
Because of the 2f of throw invincibility upon wake-up, the delay is 3 (motion) + 5 (startup) - 2 = 6.

Air Special Throw

Inputs:
[Zangief] 4 frames before wake-up: [2, UP], [1,FORWARD], [1, DOWN], [1, BACK], [1, UP, LP].
Main idea:
If the defender has a tendency to jump out your special throw, counter them.
Comments:
As the range is decent for Zangief air throw the introduced delay can vary without much changes. But you have to be very fast on your input (or do a pre-buffered 360) to catch a backdash.

Guard

Inputs:
At wake-up: [10, DOWN, BACK].
Main idea:
Just guard... nothing else to say actually. You feel a DP coming, so wait for it...
Comments:
I stay in low guard for 10 frames to reflect the reaction time.

Backdash

Inputs:
9 frames before wake-up: [1, BACK], [1], [1, BACK].
Main idea:
Bait the dragon to do a massive punish afterwards.
Comments:
9 frames before wake-up is the minimal delay to backdash without getting hit by Ryu's MP DP.

Shimmy

Inputs:
14 frames before wake-up: [14, BACK], [8, DOWN, BACK], [1, MP].
Main idea:
Place yourself at minimal distance to whiff a throw and counter right after.
Comments:
Warning, this suppose a clear and straightforward shimmy without any reaction whatsoever. 5MP has been chosen because of its range. 14 frames is the minimal amount to avoid getting thrown, in practice it may be a bit farther which make a reaction from the defense possible.

Safe Jump

Inputs:
43 frames before wake-up: [1, UP], [35], [1, HP].
Main idea:
Make the first frame of wake-up be the very last frame from the 8HP before landing.
Comments:
This is safe against 4f DP and that's the main characteristic. Note that this works because characters land in 4f in SFV (expect Zangief).

Instant Overhead

Inputs:
7 frames before wake-up: [1, UP, FORWARD], [1, LK].
Main idea:
Do a meaty on high guard only.
Comments:
Be very cautious with this one. For one, instant overheads are unsafe on hit! So don't do this unless you can kill or stun! And secondly, this is very character dependent (e.g. Cammy's 9LK makes Ryu's MP DP whiff).

Defense details

Low Guard

Inputs:
At wake-up: [10, DOWN, BACK].
Main idea:
Nothing to be said. Guard low.
Comments:
10 frames are forced in low guard to take into account the reaction time.

Perfect Guard

Inputs:
At wake-up: guard high or low.
Main idea:
Block anything that is not a throw.
Comments:
No inputs for this one because it is dependent on the attack.

Backdash

Inputs:
4 frames before wake-up: [1, BACK], [1], [1, BACK].
Main idea:
Backdash is launched upon first frame to avoid getting thrown.
Comments:
No much to say

Jump

Inputs:
At wake-up: [1, UP], [30], [1, HP].
Main idea:
Escape throws and punish after wards.
Comments:
I did a neutral jump with a HP to take into account punish a strong punish. If you want to do a jump out, do a Jump Tech OS. Be aware that for normal throw whiffs, you will not have time to punish your opponent. The quickest 8HP that wont whiff is 25f of delay but will depend on character (and it's still not fast enough to not be punished by Cammy's 4MP).

Jump Tech OS

Inputs:
At wake-up: [2, DOWN, BACK], [1, UP, BACK, LP, LK].
Main idea:
Guard the meaty, jump out or avoid being thrown. If jump out, this will do a 9LK which can hit.
Comments:
This has been explained in details by MDZ jimmY go check it out.

Jump Cancel VT

Inputs:
[Dhalsim] At wake-up: [3, UP, BACK], [1, HP, HK].
Main idea:
Cancel your pre-jump frames by V-Trigger.
Comments:
You won't be affected by meaty throws. We jump 3 frames because the meaty throw happens on the 3rd frame (and after that it is not cancelable anymore). Juri can also cancel but her V-Trigger is not an attack so it will only give her an edge to have time to read your opponent. See @TOOLASSISTED study on this.

Throw

Inputs:
1 frame before wake-up: [1, DOWN, BACK, LK, LP].
Main idea:
The classic tech throw, you throw or you avoid being thrown.
Comments:
Remember that the bot will activate its defense mode right after the input so any delayed light will be blocked.

Delayed Throw

Inputs:
At wake-up: [5, DOWN, BACK], [1, LK, LP, DOWN, BACK].
Main idea:
Same idea as the throw but blocks delayed mediums as well.
Comments:
This can counter shimmies as shown in the table but this is something that will hugely depend on each timings.

Special Throw

Inputs:
[Zangief] 4 frames before wake-up: [1,FORWARD], [1, DOWN], [1, BACK], [1, UP, LP].
Main idea:
You want to eat delayed inputs (including throws) using a special throw.
Comments:
Nothing to be said, the hit will arrive on the 5th frame so any kind of risky delayed input.

Light

Inputs:
1 frames before wake-up: [1, DOWN, BACK, LK].
Main idea:
The light will come out on the very first frame.
Comments:
You have to keep the down back position because a meaty can be blocked.

Invincible Reversal

Inputs:
4 frames before wake-up: [1, FORWARD], [1, DOWN], [1, DOWN, FORWARD, MP].
Main idea:
Do. A. Dragon. Punch. Go through mind-games like a champ.
Comments:
This is Ryu's invincible dragon punch.

3f Reversal

Inputs:
4 frames before wake-up: [1, FORWARD], [1, DOWN], [1, DOWN, FORWARD, LP, MP].
Main idea:
Use a invincible 3f dragon punch to be even more subtle.
Comments:
This goes through safe jumps because 3f is fast enough. Also this will most surely hit all weird instant overhead situations.

Zangief CA

Inputs:
[Zangief] 8 frames before wake-up: [1, FORWARD], [1, DOWN], [1, BACK], [1, UP], [1,FORWARD], [1, DOWN], [1, BACK], [1, UP, LP].
Main idea:
Use Zangief's 1 frame move to counter everything the attacker does.
Comments:
This is reversal and will counter most of your opponent decision if he stays close enough (standard shimmy wont be enough).